How to Improve Market Confidence

[kent]

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Sorry, this is a question and discussion topic, not a "How To" course.   

If someone can teach this course, please let everyone know!!!

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The Post:

I have been reluctant to post anything too negative about the market for months and months since creating a panic is not what the market needs (it's already somewhat in a panic).

Currently, there are many people who are holding on to their positions and waiting for the swings to come and go.  There are some who have decided to purchase (Warren Buffet) at what appears to be a deep discount (U.S. Market back to 2003 levels), and it could be that  10 years into the future, those people may have dollar cost averaged their way to financial freedom by being a steady buyer into a declining market??

Nonetheless, in order for the financial market to recover and be healthy, there needs to be fresh blood flowing through it's veins of instruments.  Investor confidence is low, and so the market is anemic hence there is slow recovery.  Interest rates have dropped in order to encourage investing vs. lending.....

etc etc etc... I dun wanna regurgitate the news, or have an arm-length post... so:

I guess in order for us to get to the bottom of the situation, we need to ask ourselves what it would take to have confidence in the stock market again? 

So let's discuss this.

[kent]

Like in any change management exercise, there is no easy solution. 

It requires time!  In M&A it takes 8 years and that is basically cleaning out the bad blood and bringing in new people.

who would be considered bad blood... do you mean bad blood by way of disillusioned investors, or do you mean short-sellers, or do you just mean it metaphorically... or otherwise?

So until we get a new batch of investors, this will take a few years.   Not being able to load pictures into this forum, I am unable to show you.  Dr.Bubb used to contact the administrator and he is one of them at the other site he is in.  My charts shows that it will be another 2 years AT LEAST before there is a flection point.

Hey.  This is the stock market and it is in the bear cycle.  What do you expect?  The carnage will continue and people will lose money and cry.  This is just part of the game.  The confidence will come back after some people have given up and the dust settles.  Consider lighting a big fire.  You can do all sorts of things and the fire continues.  Paper will burn and it is not until the fire dies down and their is dust their do people decided to rebuild.  And don't counter that you can pour a big bucket of water onto the fire; I said big fire.

Only after the destruction do you decide the rebuilding process.

BM,

I gather from your post that you are not about to jump into the fire??    And is it just a waiting out period, and how does one know when to get back in?

Aside from the analyticals, I wanna know what would give people the confidence to go back into the market.

ie.) What happens when everyone is just sitting on all their money and realize that its not moving anywhere?  Do you think these people will get bored and slowly creep back into the market?

ie.)  If the price of goods and services come down to a very affordable level, will people be willing to spend back into the economy and therefore drive the employers to hire and create jobs and begin the cycle?

***I am offering 1Hr Massage for 80HKD

I am newer to HK so I am no expert in the HK psychology.  Please share your thoughts, visions or experiences.

***offer valid from 01/10/08 - 09/10/2008

[Dizzy Kipper]

How to Improve Market Confidence

The Market Should:

• Appreciate its many wonderful qualities
• Have a complete makeover and look the part
• Recite positive daily affirmations
• Think positively
• Act confident, even if it doesn't feel it
• Believe in itself
• Accept change
• Set specific goals and aspirations
• Focus on strengths

 

[un own]

How to Improve Market Confidence

The Market Should:

• Appreciate its many wonderful qualities
• Have a complete makeover and look the part
• Recite positive daily affirmations
• Think positively
• Act confident, even if it doesn't feel it
• Believe in itself
• Accept change
• Set specific goals and aspirations
• Focus on strengths

 

IMO, it is impossible to know which is bottom and which is peak. But it is fairly simple to know when to enter and when to exit by looking at a stock's price and various charts of that stock. I think now it's a good time to enter for log term investment (8 to 12mths). The market might come down more in the coming days but when it starts to go up it will go up very fast before somebody could buy anything.

So I bought today!! I think I am contributing 'to Improve Market Confidence'. I have followed DK's above list.

At the same time I might be a fool to invest in these times.

- own

[kent]

How to Improve Market Confidence

The Market Should:

• Appreciate its many wonderful qualities
• Have a complete makeover and look the part
• Recite positive daily affirmations
• Think positively
• Act confident, even if it doesn't feel it
• Believe in itself
• Accept change
• Set specific goals and aspirations
• Focus on strengths

 

IMO, it is impossible to know which is bottom and which is peak. But it is fairly simple to know when to enter and when to exit by looking at a stock's price and various charts of that stock. I think now it's a good time to enter for log term investment (8 to 12mths). The market might come down more in the coming days but when it starts to go up it will go up very fast before somebody could buy anything.

So I bought today!! I think I am contributing 'to Improve Market Confidence'. I have followed DK's above list.

At the same time I might be a fool to invest in these times.

- own

Well Done!  I hope you are right.  And if you have a set trading range strategy you can likely profit as soon as tomorrow. The great thing about HK is that it is not fully exposed to the US market, however unfortunately, a lot of MNCs are doing business in HK, so business will be affected indirectly in ways that we would not be able to calculate yet. 

The current panic situation is quite a knee-jerk and once people realize this, the Asian markets can be back up and running despite the woes of the US.  Then guess where the American dollars will be heading?

**this is an opinion post, not a projection based on any analysis. Therefore forward-looking statements are based on air at 30,000ft, and should not be construed or presumed as factual.

BM, I think people will start to give up soon: 
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/nation/6050283.htmlWhen will the new blood come?  [edit]the link refers to the US / North American Market